Predicting the Weather at Martinmas

November heralds the season of drawing down and drawing in. The clocks have gone back; the evenings are suddenly so much darker. Countryside and garden lose leaves, blooms and colour. All seems to be shrinking in on itself. If a cold snap takes hold we hasten indoors. If those grey lightless days have charge we feel like taking cover and hiding away.

A gloomy grey day in November
Fog darkens the days as autumn draws on

There’s still the possibility, however, that we might be blessed with a brief Indian summer – a spell of mild and sunny autumnal weather falling specifically on the nine days between Martinmas, on the 11th November, and 20th November. Bringing sunny and hazy days this interlude is also known as a ‘Martinmas Summer.’

Small boy playing in autumn leaves
A child makes the most of a sunny autumn day

This welcome phenomenon is said to influence the direction of the wind and therefore the severity of the forthcoming winter.

‘If the wind is southeast on Martinmas, it will stay there till Candlemas’

so we’ll be in for a mild winter. But – if the wind has veered round to the north this suggests that we’ll be in for a hard winter. However, other folklore says that if the weather is warm on St Martin’s Day, then a harsh winter will follow. So, take your pick…

Snow covered roofs peep out from piles of snow
A sparkling day in the midst of a harsh winter

Saint Martin’s Day or Martinmas is the feast day of Saint Martin of Tours and is celebrated on 11th November. Martin of Tours (died 397) was a Roman soldier who was baptized as an adult and became a bishop in Gaul. He is best known for cutting his cloak in half with his sword and giving half to a beggar who was dressed in only rags in the depth of winter. That night Martin had a vision of Jesus Christ wearing the very same half-cloak.

A soldier in only half a cloak - the other portion has been given to someone in need.
Martin of Tours gave half his cloak to a beggar

In the Middle Ages and early modern period, it was an important festival in many parts of Europe, particularly Germanic-speaking regions. It marked the end of the harvest season –

Martinmas heralds the grape harvest
An abundant grape harvest

and the beginning of the “winter revelling season”.

A street party in full swing
Street parties get going with a swing

In Welsh mythology Marie Trevelyan recorded that if the hooting of an owl was heard on St Martin’s Day it was seen as a bad omen for that district.

Owls at Martinmas aren't always a good sign...
Seeing an owl at Martinmas might be a bad omen

If a meteor was seen, then there would be trouble for the whole nation.

A meteor streaks across the evening sky
A meteor can signify a cataclysmic event

In the 6th century, the church called for fasting on all days, except Saturdays and Sundays, from Saint Martin’s Day to Epiphany. However, this period was shortened to begin on the fourth Sunday before Christmas and became the current Advent within a few centuries.

The candles and conifers of Advent bring light to a dark time of the year.
Advent draws nigh as November creeps to a close